Guatemala: Technical Assistance Report—The Statistical Component of Liquidity Forecasting

Following a mission to Guatemala City in June 2023, at the request of Banco de Guatemala, this report sets out a statistical framework for forecasting liquidity. Each deposit type in the reserve-requirement base and banks’ demand for excess reserves are forecast separately and then reconciled into an aggregate forecast, which improves accuracy. The report also recommends publishing short-horizon forecasts, and the mission included a three-day workshop on running the models.

Recommended citation: Gallardo, D., Veyrune, R., and Chen, Z. (2024). "Guatemala: Technical Assistance Report—The Statistical Component of Liquidity Forecasting." International Monetary Fund.